Inflation forecast · World Bank data
Portugal inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Latest · 2025
2.3%
Inflation in Portugal is forecast at 2.4% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 0.4% to 5.9%. The latest World Bank figure is 2.3% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 2.4% and 2.5% (+0.2 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 2.4%■ 0.0 pp80%: 1.4% – 4.1%
- 12 months2026
- 2.4%▲ +0.1 pp80%: 0.4% – 5.9%
- 24 months2027
- 2.4%▲ +0.1 pp80%: 0.3% – 6.4%
- 36 months2028
- 2.5%▲ +0.2 pp80%: 0.3% – 6.8%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 2.06 pp | 2.67 pp | 80% |
| 24 months | 4 | 3.60 pp | 4.57 pp | 50% |
| 36 months | 3 | 2.59 pp | 3.66 pp | 67% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.3% | −0.08 pp |
| 2024 | 2.4% | −1.90 pp |
| 2023 | 4.3% | −3.52 pp |
| 2022 | 7.8% | +6.57 pp |
| 2021 | 1.3% | +1.28 pp |
| 2020 | −0.0% | −0.35 pp |
| 2019 | 0.3% | −0.66 pp |
| 2018 | 1.0% | −0.37 pp |
| 2017 | 1.4% | +0.76 pp |
| 2016 | 0.6% | +0.12 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 66 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Portugal
Portugal overviewOther inflation forecasts
All 39Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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