Unemployment forecast · World Bank data
Portugal unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Latest · 2025
6.2%
The unemployment rate in Portugal is forecast at 6.1% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 4.9% to 7.7%. The latest World Bank figure is 6.2% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 6.0% and 6.0% (−0.2 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 6.1%■ 0.0 pp80%: 5.5% – 6.9%
- 12 months2026
- 6.1%▼ −0.1 pp80%: 4.9% – 7.7%
- 24 months2027
- 6.0%▼ −0.1 pp80%: 4.5% – 8.2%
- 36 months2028
- 6.0%▼ −0.2 pp80%: 4.1% – 8.5%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.40 pp | 0.28 pp | 100% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.56 pp | 0.41 pp | 100% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.44 pp | 0.20 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.2% | −0.34 pp |
| 2024 | 6.5% | +0.00 pp |
| 2023 | 6.5% | +0.36 pp |
| 2022 | 6.1% | −0.57 pp |
| 2021 | 6.7% | −0.14 pp |
| 2020 | 6.9% | +0.43 pp |
| 2019 | 6.4% | −0.54 pp |
| 2018 | 7.0% | −1.91 pp |
| 2017 | 8.9% | −2.18 pp |
| 2016 | 11.1% | −1.35 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS
- Data through
- 2025 · 35 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Portugal
Portugal overviewOther unemployment forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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