Inflation forecast · World Bank data
China inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Latest · 2025
0.1%
Inflation in China is forecast at 0.3% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of −0.9% to 3.0%. The latest World Bank figure is 0.1% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 0.4% and 0.7% (+0.7 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 0.2%▲ +0.1 pp80%: −0.4% – 1.5%
- 12 months2026
- 0.3%▲ +0.2 pp80%: −0.9% – 3.0%
- 24 months2027
- 0.4%▲ +0.4 pp80%: −1.0% – 3.5%
- 36 months2028
- 0.7%▲ +0.7 pp80%: −0.9% – 4.2%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.09 pp | 0.87 pp | 80% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.09 pp | 0.78 pp | 100% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.61 pp | 1.62 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.1% | −0.16 pp |
| 2024 | 0.2% | −0.02 pp |
| 2023 | 0.2% | −1.74 pp |
| 2022 | 2.0% | +0.99 pp |
| 2021 | 1.0% | −1.44 pp |
| 2020 | 2.4% | −0.48 pp |
| 2019 | 2.9% | +0.82 pp |
| 2018 | 2.1% | +0.48 pp |
| 2017 | 1.6% | −0.41 pp |
| 2016 | 2.0% | +0.56 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 39 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for China
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All 39Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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