GDP growth forecast · World Bank data
China GDP growth forecast
GDP growth (annual %)
Latest · 2025
5.0%
GDP growth in China is forecast at 5.4% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 2.4% to 8.3%. The latest World Bank figure is 5.0% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 5.9% and 6.1% (+1.1 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 5.2%▲ +0.2 pp80%: 3.7% – 6.6%
- 12 months2026
- 5.4%▲ +0.4 pp80%: 2.4% – 8.3%
- 24 months2027
- 5.9%▲ +0.9 pp80%: 2.4% – 9.4%
- 36 months2028
- 6.1%▲ +1.1 pp80%: 2.2% – 10.1%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 2.73 pp | 2.88 pp | 60% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.04 pp | 1.56 pp | 100% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.70 pp | 2.84 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.0% | +0.00 pp |
| 2024 | 5.0% | −0.46 pp |
| 2023 | 5.4% | +2.28 pp |
| 2022 | 3.1% | −5.44 pp |
| 2021 | 8.6% | +6.23 pp |
| 2020 | 2.3% | −3.73 pp |
| 2019 | 6.1% | −0.69 pp |
| 2018 | 6.8% | −0.13 pp |
| 2017 | 6.9% | +0.12 pp |
| 2016 | 6.8% | −0.21 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 65 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for China
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All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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