Inflation forecast · World Bank data
United States inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Latest · 2024
2.9%
Inflation in the United States is forecast at 4.3% in 2026, with an 80% range of 2.1% to 7.2%. The latest World Bank figure is 2.9% for 2024.
For 2027 the model projects 4.7% (+1.8 pp versus 2024).
2025 is over but the World Bank has not published it yet, so its value here is a nowcast: 3.7% (80% range 1.7% to 6.1%).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 2025nowcast · year ended, not yet published
- 3.7%▲ +0.7 pp80%: 1.7% – 6.1%
- 20262 yr ahead
- 4.3%▲ +1.4 pp80%: 2.1% – 7.2%
- 20273 yr ahead
- 4.7%▲ +1.8 pp80%: 2.3% – 7.9%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr ahead | 5 | 2.16 pp | 2.48 pp | 60% |
| 2 yr ahead | 4 | 2.88 pp | 3.82 pp | 50% |
| 3 yr ahead | 3 | 2.78 pp | 3.61 pp | 67% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2.9% | −1.17 pp |
| 2023 | 4.1% | −3.89 pp |
| 2022 | 8.0% | +3.30 pp |
| 2021 | 4.7% | +3.46 pp |
| 2020 | 1.2% | −0.58 pp |
| 2019 | 1.8% | −0.63 pp |
| 2018 | 2.4% | +0.31 pp |
| 2017 | 2.1% | +0.87 pp |
| 2016 | 1.3% | +1.14 pp |
| 2015 | 0.1% | −1.50 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
- Data through
- 2024 · 65 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for United States
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All 39Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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