Unemployment forecast · World Bank data
United States unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Latest · 2025
4.2%
The unemployment rate in the United States is forecast at 4.1% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 3.2% to 5.5%. The latest World Bank figure is 4.2% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 4.2% and 4.2% (0.0 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 4.2%■ 0.0 pp80%: 3.7% – 4.9%
- 12 months2026
- 4.1%▼ −0.1 pp80%: 3.2% – 5.5%
- 24 months2027
- 4.2%■ 0.0 pp80%: 3.1% – 5.8%
- 36 months2028
- 4.2%■ 0.0 pp80%: 3.0% – 6.0%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.68 pp | 1.00 pp | 80% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.08 pp | 1.76 pp | 75% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.97 pp | 2.10 pp | 67% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.2% | +0.18 pp |
| 2024 | 4.0% | +0.38 pp |
| 2023 | 3.6% | −0.01 pp |
| 2022 | 3.7% | −1.70 pp |
| 2021 | 5.3% | −2.71 pp |
| 2020 | 8.1% | +4.39 pp |
| 2019 | 3.7% | −0.23 pp |
| 2018 | 3.9% | −0.46 pp |
| 2017 | 4.4% | −0.51 pp |
| 2016 | 4.9% | −0.41 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS
- Data through
- 2025 · 35 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for United States
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All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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