Inflation forecast · World Bank data
New Zealand inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Latest · 2025
2.8%
Inflation in New Zealand is forecast at 3.7% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 1.8% to 7.1%. The latest World Bank figure is 2.8% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 4.3% and 4.8% (+1.9 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 3.3%▲ +0.4 pp80%: 2.3% – 5.0%
- 12 months2026
- 3.7%▲ +0.8 pp80%: 1.8% – 7.1%
- 24 months2027
- 4.3%▲ +1.4 pp80%: 1.9% – 8.4%
- 36 months2028
- 4.8%▲ +1.9 pp80%: 2.0% – 9.5%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 2.35 pp | 1.96 pp | 40% |
| 24 months | 4 | 3.80 pp | 3.60 pp | 25% |
| 36 months | 3 | 3.03 pp | 3.12 pp | 33% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.8% | −0.08 pp |
| 2024 | 2.9% | −2.81 pp |
| 2023 | 5.7% | −1.44 pp |
| 2022 | 7.2% | +3.23 pp |
| 2021 | 3.9% | +2.23 pp |
| 2020 | 1.7% | +0.09 pp |
| 2019 | 1.6% | +0.02 pp |
| 2018 | 1.6% | −0.25 pp |
| 2017 | 1.9% | +1.20 pp |
| 2016 | 0.6% | +0.35 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 66 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for New Zealand
New Zealand overviewOther inflation forecasts
All 39Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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