Population forecast · World Bank data
New Zealand population forecast
Population, total
Latest · 2025
5.32M
The population of New Zealand is forecast at 5.41M in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 5.34M to 5.46M. The latest World Bank figure is 5.32M for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 5.49M and 5.53M (+3.9% versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 5.37M▲ +0.8%80%: 5.33M – 5.39M
- 12 months2026
- 5.41M▲ +1.7%80%: 5.34M – 5.46M
- 24 months2027
- 5.49M▲ +3.1%80%: 5.37M – 5.59M
- 36 months2028
- 5.53M▲ +3.9%80%: 5.31M – 5.63M
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.07M | 0.05M | 40% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.09M | 0.11M | 50% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.14M | 0.19M | 33% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened; naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.32M | +0.66% |
| 2024 | 5.29M | +1.73% |
| 2023 | 5.20M | +2.33% |
| 2022 | 5.08M | −0.06% |
| 2021 | 5.08M | +0.24% |
| 2020 | 5.07M | +2.05% |
| 2019 | 4.97M | +1.42% |
| 2018 | 4.90M | +1.81% |
| 2017 | 4.81M | +2.11% |
| 2016 | 4.71M | +2.27% |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series SP.POP.TOTL
- Data through
- 2025 · 66 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for New Zealand
New Zealand overviewOther population forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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