Inflation forecast · World Bank data
Japan inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Latest · 2025
3.2%
Inflation in Japan is forecast at 2.9% in 2026, with an 80% range of 1.1% to 5.6%. The latest World Bank figure is 3.2% for 2025.
For 2027 and 2028 the model projects 2.7% and 2.3% (−0.8 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 20261 yr ahead
- 2.9%▼ −0.2 pp80%: 1.1% – 5.6%
- 20272 yr ahead
- 2.7%▼ −0.5 pp80%: 0.8% – 5.6%
- 20283 yr ahead
- 2.3%▼ −0.8 pp80%: 0.4% – 5.6%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr ahead | 5 | 1.30 pp | 0.93 pp | 80% |
| 2 yr ahead | 4 | 2.06 pp | 1.59 pp | 50% |
| 3 yr ahead | 3 | 2.56 pp | 2.31 pp | 33% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.2% | +0.43 pp |
| 2024 | 2.7% | −0.53 pp |
| 2023 | 3.3% | +0.77 pp |
| 2022 | 2.5% | +2.73 pp |
| 2021 | −0.2% | −0.21 pp |
| 2020 | −0.0% | −0.49 pp |
| 2019 | 0.5% | −0.52 pp |
| 2018 | 1.0% | +0.50 pp |
| 2017 | 0.5% | +0.61 pp |
| 2016 | −0.1% | −0.92 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 66 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Japan
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All 39Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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