Unemployment forecast · World Bank data
Japan unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Latest · 2025
2.5%
The unemployment rate in Japan is forecast at 2.4% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 2.1% to 2.8%. The latest World Bank figure is 2.5% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 2.3% and 2.3% (−0.1 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 2.4%■ 0.0 pp80%: 2.3% – 2.6%
- 12 months2026
- 2.4%■ 0.0 pp80%: 2.1% – 2.8%
- 24 months2027
- 2.3%▼ −0.1 pp80%: 1.9% – 2.8%
- 36 months2028
- 2.3%▼ −0.1 pp80%: 1.8% – 2.9%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.09 pp | 0.07 pp | 100% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.20 pp | 0.17 pp | 100% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.38 pp | 0.23 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.5% | −0.05 pp |
| 2024 | 2.5% | −0.10 pp |
| 2023 | 2.6% | −0.01 pp |
| 2022 | 2.6% | −0.19 pp |
| 2021 | 2.8% | −0.00 pp |
| 2020 | 2.8% | +0.46 pp |
| 2019 | 2.4% | −0.12 pp |
| 2018 | 2.5% | −0.36 pp |
| 2017 | 2.8% | −0.31 pp |
| 2016 | 3.1% | −0.25 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS
- Data through
- 2025 · 35 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Japan
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All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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