Inflation forecast · World Bank data
Italy inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Latest · 2025
1.5%
Inflation in Italy is forecast at 1.6% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of −0.1% to 4.4%. The latest World Bank figure is 1.5% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 1.5% and 1.5% (0.0 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 1.6%■ 0.0 pp80%: 0.7% – 3.0%
- 12 months2026
- 1.6%■ 0.0 pp80%: −0.1% – 4.4%
- 24 months2027
- 1.5%■ 0.0 pp80%: −0.4% – 4.7%
- 36 months2028
- 1.5%■ 0.0 pp80%: −0.5% – 5.0%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 2.58 pp | 3.22 pp | 60% |
| 24 months | 4 | 4.83 pp | 5.85 pp | 25% |
| 36 months | 3 | 3.16 pp | 4.44 pp | 67% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.5% | +0.55 pp |
| 2024 | 1.0% | −4.64 pp |
| 2023 | 5.6% | −2.58 pp |
| 2022 | 8.2% | +6.33 pp |
| 2021 | 1.9% | +2.01 pp |
| 2020 | −0.1% | −0.75 pp |
| 2019 | 0.6% | −0.53 pp |
| 2018 | 1.1% | −0.09 pp |
| 2017 | 1.2% | +1.32 pp |
| 2016 | −0.1% | −0.13 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 66 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Italy
Italy overviewOther inflation forecasts
All 39Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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