Population forecast · World Bank data
Italy population forecast
Population, total
Latest · 2025
58.92M
The population of Italy is forecast at 58.80M in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 58.41M to 59.10M. The latest World Bank figure is 58.92M for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 58.84M and 59.02M (+0.2% versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 months2025
- 58.86M▼ −0.1%80%: 58.66M – 59.01M
- 12 months2026
- 58.80M▼ −0.2%80%: 58.41M – 59.10M
- 24 months2027
- 58.84M▼ −0.1%80%: 58.29M – 59.26M
- 36 months2028
- 59.02M▲ +0.2%80%: 58.42M – 59.50M
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.07M | 0.10M | 100% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.14M | 0.18M | 100% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.39M | 0.24M | 67% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened; naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 58.92M | −0.06% |
| 2024 | 58.95M | −0.05% |
| 2023 | 58.98M | −0.05% |
| 2022 | 59.01M | −0.20% |
| 2021 | 59.13M | −0.51% |
| 2020 | 59.44M | −0.49% |
| 2019 | 59.73M | −0.25% |
| 2018 | 59.88M | −0.21% |
| 2017 | 60.00M | −0.19% |
| 2016 | 60.12M | −0.19% |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series SP.POP.TOTL
- Data through
- 2025 · 66 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Italy
Italy overviewOther population forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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