Unemployment forecast · World Bank data
Poland unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Latest · 2025
3.0%
The unemployment rate in Poland is forecast at 3.0% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 2.6% to 4.6%. The latest World Bank figure is 3.0% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 3.2% and 3.4% (+0.4 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 3.0%■ 0.0 pp80%: 2.8% – 3.8%
- 12 months2026
- 3.0%■ 0.0 pp80%: 2.6% – 4.6%
- 24 months2027
- 3.2%▲ +0.2 pp80%: 2.2% – 5.8%
- 36 months2028
- 3.4%▲ +0.4 pp80%: 1.9% – 6.9%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.33 pp | 0.17 pp | 100% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.74 pp | 0.28 pp | 100% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.50 pp | 0.35 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.0% | +0.17 pp |
| 2024 | 2.8% | +0.06 pp |
| 2023 | 2.7% | −0.07 pp |
| 2022 | 2.8% | −0.46 pp |
| 2021 | 3.3% | +0.11 pp |
| 2020 | 3.2% | −0.11 pp |
| 2019 | 3.3% | −0.57 pp |
| 2018 | 3.8% | −1.03 pp |
| 2017 | 4.9% | −1.27 pp |
| 2016 | 6.1% | −1.33 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS
- Data through
- 2025 · 35 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Poland
Poland overviewOther unemployment forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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