GDP growth forecast · World Bank data
Mexico GDP growth forecast
GDP growth (annual %)
Latest · 2025
0.6%
GDP growth in Mexico is forecast at 2.2% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of −2.1% to 5.9%. The latest World Bank figure is 0.6% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 2.3% and 2.3% (+1.7 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 1.4%▲ +0.8 pp80%: −0.8% – 3.2%
- 12 months2026
- 2.2%▲ +1.6 pp80%: −2.1% – 5.9%
- 24 months2027
- 2.3%▲ +1.8 pp80%: −2.2% – 6.0%
- 36 months2028
- 2.3%▲ +1.7 pp80%: −2.3% – 6.0%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 2.19 pp | 3.98 pp | 80% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.97 pp | 4.98 pp | 100% |
| 36 months | 3 | 2.19 pp | 6.44 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.6% | −0.79 pp |
| 2024 | 1.4% | −1.76 pp |
| 2023 | 3.1% | −0.60 pp |
| 2022 | 3.7% | −2.34 pp |
| 2021 | 6.0% | +14.40 pp |
| 2020 | −8.4% | −7.96 pp |
| 2019 | −0.4% | −2.36 pp |
| 2018 | 2.0% | +0.10 pp |
| 2017 | 1.9% | +0.10 pp |
| 2016 | 1.8% | −0.93 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 65 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Mexico
Mexico overviewOther GDP growth forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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