Interest rates forecast · FRED data
Fed funds rate forecast
Federal funds effective rate (%, monthly average)
Latest · Aug 2026
3.63%
The Fed funds rate is forecast at 3.61% in 12 months (Aug 2027), with an 80% range of 2.55% to 4.53%. The latest monthly value was 3.63% on Aug 2026, so the median implies a change of −0.02 pp.
Along the way, the median is 3.67% in 3 months and 3.66% in 6 months.
- 3 monthsNov 2026
- 3.67%▲ +0.04 pp80%: 3.37% – 3.95%
- 6 monthsFeb 2027
- 3.66%▲ +0.03 pp80%: 3.13% – 4.12%
- 12 monthsAug 2027
- 3.61%▼ −0.02 pp80%: 2.55% – 4.53%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 0.34 pp | 0.36 pp | 86% |
| 6 months | 55 | 0.80 pp | 0.76 pp | 69% |
| 12 months | 49 | 1.65 pp | 1.60 pp | 43% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 3.63% | 0.00 pp |
| Jul 2026 | 3.63% | 0.00 pp |
| Jun 2026 | 3.63% | 0.00 pp |
| May 2026 | 3.63% | −0.01 pp |
| Apr 2026 | 3.64% | 0.00 pp |
| Mar 2026 | 3.64% | 0.00 pp |
| Feb 2026 | 3.64% | 0.00 pp |
| Jan 2026 | 3.64% | −0.08 pp |
| Dec 2025 | 3.72% | −0.16 pp |
| Nov 2025 | 3.88% | −0.21 pp |
| Oct 2025 | 4.09% | −0.13 pp |
| Sep 2025 | 4.22% | −0.11 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · series FEDFUNDS
- Data through
- Aug 2026 · 866 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
Other interest rate forecasts
All 3Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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