Interest rates forecast · FRED data
US 10-year Treasury yield forecast
10-year US Treasury yield (%)
Last close · Sep 25, 2026
5.17%
The US 10-year Treasury yield is forecast at 5.05% in 12 months (Sep 2027), with an 80% range of 3.92% to 6.36%. The last close was 5.17% on Sep 25, 2026, so the median implies a change of −0.12 pp.
Along the way, the median is 5.14% in 3 months and 5.09% in 6 months.
- 3 monthsDec 2026
- 5.14%▼ −0.03 pp80%: 4.60% – 5.75%
- 6 monthsMar 2027
- 5.09%▼ −0.08 pp80%: 4.37% – 6.01%
- 12 monthsSep 2027
- 5.05%▼ −0.12 pp80%: 3.92% – 6.36%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | 0.38 pp | 0.36 pp | 81% |
| 6 months | 54 | 0.54 pp | 0.49 pp | 78% |
| 12 months | 48 | 0.77 pp | 0.66 pp | 85% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 5.17% | −0.01 pp |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 5.18% | +0.07 pp |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 5.11% | +0.15 pp |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4.96% | 0.00 pp |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 4.96% | −0.05 pp |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 5.01% | +0.07 pp |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 4.94% | −0.07 pp |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 5.01% | +0.01 pp |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 5.00% | +0.03 pp |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 4.97% | +0.01 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · series DGS10
- Data through
- Sep 25, 2026 · 6,687 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
Other interest rate forecasts
All 3Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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