GDP growth forecast · World Bank data
United Kingdom GDP growth forecast
GDP growth (annual %)
Latest · 2025
1.4%
GDP growth in the United Kingdom is forecast at 1.8% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of −1.0% to 4.2%. The latest World Bank figure is 1.4% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 1.9% and 2.0% (+0.6 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 1.6%▲ +0.2 pp80%: 0.2% – 2.8%
- 12 months2026
- 1.8%▲ +0.4 pp80%: −1.0% – 4.2%
- 24 months2027
- 1.9%▲ +0.5 pp80%: −1.0% – 4.4%
- 36 months2028
- 2.0%▲ +0.6 pp80%: −1.0% – 4.6%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 3.04 pp | 5.60 pp | 60% |
| 24 months | 4 | 2.85 pp | 7.16 pp | 50% |
| 36 months | 3 | 2.02 pp | 7.18 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.4% | +0.31 pp |
| 2024 | 1.1% | +0.81 pp |
| 2023 | 0.3% | −4.88 pp |
| 2022 | 5.1% | −3.39 pp |
| 2021 | 8.5% | +18.59 pp |
| 2020 | −10.0% | −11.30 pp |
| 2019 | 1.3% | −0.30 pp |
| 2018 | 1.6% | −1.47 pp |
| 2017 | 3.0% | +0.82 pp |
| 2016 | 2.2% | +0.07 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 65 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for United Kingdom
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All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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