GDP growth forecast · World Bank data
Norway GDP growth forecast
GDP growth (annual %)
Latest · 2025
1.1%
GDP growth in Norway is forecast at 1.7% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of −0.5% to 3.9%. The latest World Bank figure is 1.1% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 1.9% and 1.9% (+0.8 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 1.4%▲ +0.3 pp80%: 0.3% – 2.5%
- 12 months2026
- 1.7%▲ +0.7 pp80%: −0.5% – 3.9%
- 24 months2027
- 1.9%▲ +0.8 pp80%: −0.6% – 4.1%
- 36 months2028
- 1.9%▲ +0.8 pp80%: −0.6% – 4.2%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.76 pp | 2.14 pp | 60% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.88 pp | 3.16 pp | 75% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.28 pp | 2.48 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.1% | −0.34 pp |
| 2024 | 1.4% | +1.07 pp |
| 2023 | 0.4% | −3.73 pp |
| 2022 | 4.1% | −0.06 pp |
| 2021 | 4.1% | +5.50 pp |
| 2020 | −1.4% | −2.83 pp |
| 2019 | 1.5% | +0.36 pp |
| 2018 | 1.1% | −1.56 pp |
| 2017 | 2.7% | +1.38 pp |
| 2016 | 1.3% | −0.75 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 65 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Norway
Norway overviewOther GDP growth forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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