GDP growth forecast · World Bank data
Ireland GDP growth forecast
GDP growth (annual %)
Latest · 2025
12.3%
GDP growth in Ireland is forecast at 6.8% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 1.3% to 12.6%. The latest World Bank figure is 12.3% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 6.1% and 5.7% (−6.6 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 9.6%▼ −2.8 pp80%: 6.8% – 12.5%
- 12 months2026
- 6.8%▼ −5.6 pp80%: 1.3% – 12.6%
- 24 months2027
- 6.1%▼ −6.2 pp80%: 0.4% – 12.4%
- 36 months2028
- 5.7%▼ −6.6 pp80%: −0.1% – 12.2%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 6.16 pp | 8.55 pp | 40% |
| 24 months | 4 | 6.22 pp | 9.73 pp | 50% |
| 36 months | 3 | 6.24 pp | 9.39 pp | 33% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12.3% | +9.74 pp |
| 2024 | 2.6% | +5.14 pp |
| 2023 | −2.5% | −10.05 pp |
| 2022 | 7.5% | −8.75 pp |
| 2021 | 16.3% | +9.10 pp |
| 2020 | 7.2% | +2.18 pp |
| 2019 | 5.0% | −2.72 pp |
| 2018 | 7.7% | −2.42 pp |
| 2017 | 10.1% | +8.89 pp |
| 2016 | 1.2% | −23.40 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 65 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Ireland
Ireland overviewOther GDP growth forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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