Unemployment forecast · World Bank data
India unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Latest · 2025
4.2%
The unemployment rate in India is forecast at 4.2% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 3.6% to 4.9%. The latest World Bank figure is 4.2% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 4.3% and 4.4% (+0.2 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 4.2%■ 0.0 pp80%: 3.9% – 4.6%
- 12 months2026
- 4.2%■ 0.0 pp80%: 3.6% – 4.9%
- 24 months2027
- 4.3%▲ +0.1 pp80%: 3.5% – 5.3%
- 36 months2028
- 4.4%▲ +0.2 pp80%: 3.4% – 5.6%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.35 pp | 0.75 pp | 40% |
| 24 months | 4 | 2.37 pp | 1.49 pp | 25% |
| 36 months | 3 | 3.33 pp | 2.17 pp | 0% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.2% | +0.05 pp |
| 2024 | 4.2% | +0.00 pp |
| 2023 | 4.2% | −0.65 pp |
| 2022 | 4.8% | −1.56 pp |
| 2021 | 6.4% | −1.48 pp |
| 2020 | 7.9% | +1.35 pp |
| 2019 | 6.5% | −1.14 pp |
| 2018 | 7.7% | +0.03 pp |
| 2017 | 7.6% | +0.02 pp |
| 2016 | 7.6% | −0.02 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS
- Data through
- 2025 · 35 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for India
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All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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